InCognito

Ex Ante, Ex Post: Making Sense of Rational Expectations and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

2016-11-02

The move from a predominantly Keynesian paradigm in macroeconomics to the success of monetarist and the new classical macroeconomics that followed represents a shift from a general skepticism of markets within economics to a belief in market efficiency. The most extreme version of this is represented by real business cycle theorists who model the macroeconomy without using an upward sloping...

Read more


Knowledge, Language and Coordination. A Note

2016-10-11

Check out my latest post at Political...

Read more


New Austrian Macroecomics Issue for the Review of Austrian Economics

2016-07-23

Articles for the coming RAE issue on New Austrian Macroeconomics are posted online. An early excerpt from Richard Wagner and Paul Lewis explain the contribution of each paper contained in the issue: In “Toward a New Austrian Macroeconomics,” Vipin P. Veetil and Lawrence H. White present a wide-ranging comparison of points of similarity and difference between their vision of a New Austrian...

Read more


Entrepreneurship, Search Costs, and Ecological Rationality in an Agent-based Economy

2016-04-25

New paper , "Entrepreneurship, Search Costs, and Ecological Rationality in an Agent-based Economy" , forthcoming in the Review of Austrian Economics : Since Coase’s paper on the firm, transaction costs have occupied much attention as a field of economic inquiry. Yet, with few exceptions, neoclassical theory has failed to integrate transaction costs into its core. The dominant mode of theorizing...

Read more


Ecological (or Realist) Rationality in Economics

2015-12-01

Those unfamiliar with ecological rationality may be surprised by the term ecological used in in a discussion of economic methodology and methods. For the last century, economic theory has been described increasing in terms of of systems linear equations. In order to be mathematically tractable, this framework assumes homogeneous agents whose preferences are only described in terms of prices and...

Read more


Equilibration without Scalar Utility: Formal Non-equilibrium Modeling (Sneak Peak)

2015-10-26

This is what equilibration looks like when agents coordinate action without agents who consider the MRS as derived from scalar utility. The lower boundary represent the price that is represented by the ratio of desired reserve levels for each of the two goods in the model. Non-equilibrium modeling provides equilibrium results. I hope to have the paper up by the...

Read more


Re: David Henderson: A Defense of Austrian Business Cycle Theory

2015-08-26

At EconLog David Henderson is asking: Question for Bob Murphy and other proponents of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory: is there any evidence conceivable that, if you believed it, would convince you that your theory is wrong? This was in response to Robert Murphy who David quotes: As shocking as these developments [drops in stock prices and increased volatility] may be to some analysts, those...

Read more


Hayek's 'Degrees of Explanation': Moving Away from the Apodictic Certainty Derived from the 'Axiom' of Human Action

2015-06-03

In "Degrees of Explanation", Hayek defends a system of analysis that approaches knowledge in a deductive manner. His proposed methodology is unique in that it is not Misesian, though it bares some similarities. Core knowledge need not be "apriori" in the sense that Mises employs the term. As Kant claimed in his Critique of Pure Reason , apriori claims must be established in empirical observation....

Read more


How the Credit Cycle Forms the Basis of the Business Cycle

2015-04-06

Within the world that we have constructed, agents and objects take on discrete states.  Agents do not experience the world continuously, but rather, in chunks. For example, when an agent purchases some quantity of a good, very often that good can only be sold in whole units. For example, an agent must purchase some discrete number of computers as defined by an integer. Wholesalers must hold...

Read more


The Emergence of the Clearinghouse

2015-04-01

We continue our journey through the evolution of banking with the rise of the clearinghouse association. First, let’s review the evolution of economic development thus far. Imagine a world of scarcity where we have instantiated agents. These agents own property and take action according to their preferences. As agents interact, direct (barter) exchange arises. Each agent trades some good or goods...

Read more